The full text of the Introduction from Horizon Advisory’s first report in The Coronavirus Series is copied below. The report, titled Viral Moment: China’s Post-COVID Planning, was authored by Horizon Advisory’s Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic.
Introduction from Viral Moment: China’s Post-COVID Planning
COVID-19, the Wuhan virus, first emerged in China. Beijing’s late, inadequate, and skewed information disclosures accelerated the virus’s global spread.[1] China’s manipulation of information continues to hamper response efforts[2]. Now, as the world wrestles with the pandemic – and its human, economic, and social costs – Beijing is maneuvering to “seize the opportunity”[3] that the crisis presents.
Beijing intends to use the global dislocation and downturn to attract foreign investment, to seize strategic market share and resources – especially those that force dependence, and to proliferate global information systems; to as Chinese sources put it, “leap-frog” industrially, “overtake around the corner” strategically, capture the “commanding heights” globally. Beijing intends to reverse recent US efforts to counteract China’s subversive international presence; at the same time to chip away at US-Europe relations. In other words, Beijing will use COVID-19 to accelerate its long-standing, strategic offensive.
According to discourse in China right now, this opportunity is akin to that of the 2008 financial crisis – but bigger. Beijing used the opening presented by the 2008 economic downturn to reach parity; to position itself as an alternative world leader. In COVID-19, Beijing sees the chance to win. This time, China benefits from a near-peer strategic position. It also benefits from first-mover status. China has the temporal advantage: COVID-19 began in China.[4] China’s workers are already returning to the job. They are positioned to outpace their global peers and capture global demand once developed economies return online, months behind China.
Already, Beijing is taking advantage of this window of opportunity.[5] It will continue to do so. It intends to support selected, strategic industrial players while competition is paralyzed; encourage exports and relevant foreign investment; and integrate and deploy its government-controlled information systems[6] – telecommunications (e.g., 5G and Huawei), the Industrial Internet of Things, fintech, surveillance, social monitoring. A world of crisis and disrupted supply opens up strategic nodes. It also makes international networks, standards, and platforms vulnerable.
The results of China’s approach are already evident. They are evident in policies under way, growth and direction of China’s industry, and an already-consolidated information technology infrastructure now being exported internationally.
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[1] China started censoring social media in late December to limit public discussion of COVID-19 (a list of 45 virus keywords was blocked as of December 31st; a total of 516 virus keyword combinations were blocked on WeChat by February 15). See the Citizen Lab report titled “Censored Contagion: How Information on the Coronavirus is Managed on Chinese Social Media,” March 3, 2020, https://citizenlab.ca/2020/03/censored-contagion-how-information-on-the-coronavirus-is-managed-on-chinese-social-media/
[2] And, with fallacious rumors, to spoil relations in what should be a cooperative environment.
[3] Opinion of the Chengdu Municipal People's Government of the Communist Party of China on Coordinating and Advancing the Prevention and Control of the COVID-19 Epidemic and Economic and Social development Efforts to Complete the 2020 Economic and Social Development Goals, March 5, 2020.
[4] Conveniently, the Wuhan virus shares its place of origin with China’s most advanced virology institute: The Wuhan P4 lab (武汉P4实验室) hosts China’s leading biosecurity researchers under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Wuhan National Biosafety Center and the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The center serves as a WHO reference laboratory and stores severe pathogens; its initial research agenda focused on SARS, Ebola, and the Lassa virus.
[5] Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic, “The Reach of China’s Military-Civil Fusion: Coronavirus and Supply Chain Crises,” Real Clear Defense, March 4, 2020, https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/03/04/the_reach_of_chinas_military-civil_fusion_coronavirus_and_supply_chain_crises_115092.html.
[6] Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic, “Game of Phones: 5G is the Next US-China Standards Battleground,” The Octavian Report, Summer 2019, https://octavianreport.com/article/5g-us-china-standards-fight/.